Wireless - the game is just beginning
Interesting article today in the NY Times about the issues impacting the wireless industry. Though the current situation is a bit grim, the long term outlook should be great for both consumer electronics, Internet services, and carriers.
The state of the industry according to the article is.
1) People love smart phones because of the apps.
2) Smart phones are expensive.
3) The economy is down right now so sales are expected to be slow.
4) Carriers and handset vendors (like everyone else) are laying people off.
Yet over the next 18 months we know that:
1) The price of smart phones will drop, increasing penetration.
2) The greater the number of phones, the more robust the market will be for applications.
3) The bigger the installed base, the more developers who will create cool applications.
4) The cooler the applications, the more people will love their phones.
5) Go back to the top!
Another issue is that data not only wants to be free, it wants to be mobile. As Craig McCaw once remarked, people don't want to call places they want to call other people. The same goes for data.
I don't want data to come to my laptop. At least, I don't want to have to be tethered to a desk or coffee shop table where my laptop sits. I want a robust mobile device that provides the same level of functionality as a laptop, and I want that to device to fit in my pocket.
The iPhone is the most effective of those devices. There is no reason that Nokia, Microsoft, or another company can't launch similar devices that are competitive on both price and functionality.
Last word to Nokia:
The state of the industry according to the article is.
1) People love smart phones because of the apps.
2) Smart phones are expensive.
3) The economy is down right now so sales are expected to be slow.
4) Carriers and handset vendors (like everyone else) are laying people off.
Yet over the next 18 months we know that:
1) The price of smart phones will drop, increasing penetration.
2) The greater the number of phones, the more robust the market will be for applications.
3) The bigger the installed base, the more developers who will create cool applications.
4) The cooler the applications, the more people will love their phones.
5) Go back to the top!
Another issue is that data not only wants to be free, it wants to be mobile. As Craig McCaw once remarked, people don't want to call places they want to call other people. The same goes for data.
I don't want data to come to my laptop. At least, I don't want to have to be tethered to a desk or coffee shop table where my laptop sits. I want a robust mobile device that provides the same level of functionality as a laptop, and I want that to device to fit in my pocket.
The iPhone is the most effective of those devices. There is no reason that Nokia, Microsoft, or another company can't launch similar devices that are competitive on both price and functionality.
Last word to Nokia:
Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s chief executive, said recently in a conference call with investors to discuss the earnings. He added that he believed Internet-centric phones and mobile services would drive a new generation of growth.
“It is clear that there is a tremendous opportunity to extend the value of the handset market through the integration of device hardware and Internet services,” he said. “This will drive the next wave of industry growth, and innovation will not stand still.”
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